Set to air March 12 with Jimmy Kimmel as host, the 95th Academy Awards will be the 15th year this column has covered the Oscars. The show has changed a lot over that time and is sneakily better than it was when I first started writing ScreenTime. Less preciousness about celebrity, more Best Picture nominees, more inclusion among the nominees, and, most importantly, less predictable outcomes.
This is all my long-winded way of saying welcome to Oscar season, and here they are, your nominees:
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis); Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brendan Fraser (The Whale); Paul Mescal (Aftersun); Bill Nighy (Living)
Synopsis: Aside from Nighy, they’re all very much in the running. Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Mescal all have their fans and have had their moment, but none feel like a real front-runner at the moment. Farrell gave the best performance, but Butler’s film was very well seen and he’s a big, bright light in Hollywood. I think one of those two will win.
Prediction: Farrell
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway); Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans); Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Synopsis: Quan rules, taking home this award at Golden Globes, but I think Gleeson gave an all-time-great supporting performance. Hopefully the double nomination for Banshees doesn’t cannibalize Gleeson’s chances.
Prediction: Gleeson
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár); Ana de Armas (Blonde); Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie); Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans); Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Synopsis: This is one of the strongest crops of Actress in a Leading Role candidates in recent memory. For the most part, Blanchett has owned the conversation. Yeon might sneak in and take it (no complaints here), but the best performance I saw in 2022 belongs to Riseborough in the very-little-seen To Leslie.
Prediction: Blanchett
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever); Bong Chau (The Whale); Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin); Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once); Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Synopsis: All the talk has been about Bassett. This will probably be the year’s Lifetime Achievement Oscar.
Prediction: Bassett
Directing
Nominees: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin); Daniel Kwan/Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once); Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans); Todd Field (Tár); Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Synopsis: There isno real standout up to this point. It used to always be that whichever film won Best Director also usually won Best Picture. No longer the case. The Academy sees Best Director and Best Picture as the top two prizes of the night, and in recent years, they’ve often split the two awards up. So far, the talk has been about Spielberg, but I’d love to see The Daniels win.
Prediction: Spielberg
Best Picture
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Banshees of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; Tár; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking
Synopsis: Maybe more than any other year since I’ve been writing this column, I’m really not sure who is going to win. That’s fun. As long as it’s not Avatar, I’ll be fine with the winner.
Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Send your predictions to gregwlocke@gmail.com.
